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Kalshi Weather Edge

Kalshi runs daily-high temperature markets for seven US cities. This scores each open market against a live, free forecast and shows where the model and the market disagree — biggest gaps first.

Read this first: "edge" here is model-vs-market disagreement, not validated profit. It uses a single point forecast, an assumed error band, and center-of-city coordinates (Kalshi settles on a specific station that can differ a degree or two). It's a concept demo to learn the structure of these markets — not a signal to trade blindly.

How the model scores a temperature market

Each Kalshi market asks whether a city's high will land above, below, or between certain °F strikes on a given day. The tool takes Open-Meteo's forecast high for that city and date and asks: if the real high is the forecast plus or minus some normal error (your σ), what's the probability the contract resolves YES? That model probability, minus the market's current mid price, is the edge in cents — positive leans YES, negative leans NO.

Why σ is the honest knob. Published daily-max forecast error runs roughly 1.5–3°F; σ lets you widen or tighten that band and watch the edges move. There's no fitted "true" σ here — which is exactly why this is a teaching tool. A production weather bot, like the one in our Kalshi weather trading strategy guide, fits the error to the exact settlement station and blends multiple forecast models.

Frequently asked questions

Is the edge real profit?
No — it's model-vs-market disagreement, gross of fees, from a single point forecast and an assumed error band. A concept demo, not a signal.

Why hide same-day markets?
A same-day high is partly realized, so the market often out-knows a forecast. Future days are the honest case and are shown by default.

Which cities?
New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Austin, Denver and Philadelphia.

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