Rules, sizing, signals, and market-specific research.
Rules, sizing, signals, and market-specific research. 13 articles · page 1 of 2
The key signals that move Kalshi prediction markets — data sources, timing, and how to build a signal-watching system that gives you an edge.
How to trade oil on Kalshi: WTI and Brent crude, gasoline, and natural gas. Settlement sources, the EIA/OPEC calendar, and three ways to find an edge.
Is the Bitcoin halving cycle dead? We measured all four cycles: the pump is decaying on a schedule (91x to 2x), but the rhythm is alive. How to trade it.
Yes, you can bet on Bitcoin's price legally in the US. How Bitcoin prediction markets work, where to trade (Kalshi vs Polymarket), and how to automate it.
How to trade Kalshi economic markets — CPI, jobs reports, GDP, and Fed rate decisions. Nowcasting models, timing strategies, and the data that matters.
How to use the Kelly criterion to size your Kalshi trades: the math behind position sizing, practical adjustments, and why most should use half-Kelly.
We built real Kalshi arbitrage scanners with the production fee formula: the single-market myth, the one real edge, and why there's no free money.
How to run a market making strategy on Kalshi — posting two-sided quotes, managing inventory risk, and earning the spread in prediction markets.
We scanned Kalshi's live order book: most markets are too wide and thin to trade, single-market arbitrage is impossible, and the list is auto-generated.
How to build parlay-style multi-leg bets on Kalshi for outsized returns. Learn correlation pricing, leg selection, and when parlays pay off.
How to find edge in Kalshi sports props using player projections, matchup analysis, and correlation strategies. Data-driven guide for traders.
A data-driven guide to Kalshi weather markets: how forecast models (GFS, ECMWF) price daily-high temperature contracts and how to automate the edge.
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