One trading rule at a time, with the assumptions and failure modes exposed.
One trading rule at a time, with the assumptions and failure modes exposed. 4 articles
The key signals that move Kalshi prediction markets — data sources, timing, and how to build a signal-watching system that gives you an edge.
How to use the Kelly criterion to size your Kalshi trades: the math behind position sizing, practical adjustments, and why most should use half-Kelly.
We built real Kalshi arbitrage scanners with the production fee formula: the single-market myth, the one real edge, and why there's no free money.
How to run a market making strategy on Kalshi — posting two-sided quotes, managing inventory risk, and earning the spread in prediction markets.
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