Postmortems and checks built from failures, misleading data, and false confidence.
Postmortems and checks built from failures, misleading data, and false confidence. 3 articles
A practical guide to backtesting a Kalshi strategy: historical data, putting the real fee in the math, and the five ways a backtest lies to you.
We scanned Kalshi's live order book: most markets are too wide and thin to trade, single-market arbitrage is impossible, and the list is auto-generated.
We built a Kalshi bot for cheap-contract asymmetric upside. It lost 369 paper trades in a row. Forensic breakdown of three structural flaws.
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