Bot for Kalshisuislanchez / polymarket-kalshi-weather-bot
What it does
Trades Kalshi KXHIGH temperature markets plus Polymarket. Uses 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts via Open-Meteo plus BTC 5-min microstructure signals. 15% Kelly sizing capped at 5% of bankroll and $75–100 per trade. React 3-column dashboard (signals, weather, trades) with FastAPI backend; Brier score tracking; simulation mode with virtual bankroll and equity curves. Reported max profit of $1.8k.
What we learned from it
ensemble forecasts crush single-model forecasts on Kalshi weather markets. The 31-member GFS ensemble is free via Open-Meteo. The Brier score tracking inside the dashboard — explicit measurement of forecast calibration — is what separates serious weather bots from beginners.
Find the author
- Repository: github.com/suislanchez/polymarket-kalshi-weather-bot
- GitHub profile: @suislanchez
- Twitter/X: @iamsuislanchez
- Website / blog: suislanchez.com
- Author bio: Hi I'm J. Luis, im passionate about building and iterating and scrapping and repeating Berkeley 25' CS + DS
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