Bot for Kalshicobra88giga / kalshi-weather-bot
What it does
NWS/NOAA weather edge trading. Forecast horizon weighting (near-term 1.0, 3-day 0.75, 7-day 0.45) with regional NWS accuracy discount. Fixed $25 per position; Telegram alerts.
What we learned from it
the horizon-weighting scheme (closer forecast = more confidence) approximates the empirical accuracy decay of point forecasts. It's a simple heuristic that captures most of what a more complex Bayesian update would do.
Find the author
- Repository: github.com/cobra88giga/kalshi-weather-bot
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